Daniel Bard Can Start

Over the winter, one of the big discussions floating around the Boston Red Sox was their decision to convert setup ace Daniel Bard into a starter. Few pundits thought he could make the transition, feeling that he was more valuable in the bullpen, which, if you understand grade 2 math, is ridiculous.

The change made sense to me. Does he have the stuff to start? Uh, yeah. Does he have the arms strength to last? I have no reason to believe otherwise. So they did. He started all spring, and he struggled, and people called for him to be moved back into the bullpen. Then the season started, and the Red Sox bullpen couldn't get the job done. And people called for him to be moved back into the bullpen. Then, last night, he took the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays, and allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work -- and people stopped calling for him to be moved back into the bullpen.

Saying Daniel Bard is much better than his line is like saying that Andre Maginot was better than his. Daniel Bard was fantastic.

Bard answered every question thrown at him. Can he sustain his velocity? You bet. He averaged a tick under 95 mph for the evening (Justin Verlander's average in 2011), and his last two fastballs registered at 94 and 93.

Does he have the secondary stuff to keep hitters off balance? Absolutely. His slider is perhaps the best in the American League (according to a Danish pitch-tracking company called Trackman, it is), and Blue Jays hitters had no idea what to do with it all evening. He mixed in a so-so changeup, but you know who else had a mediocre changeup they didn't have to use much? Randy Johnson.

What about his results? He did allow five runs, after all. Baseball is not a fair game, least of all for pitchers. Runs allowed depend on everything from the hitters you face, to where their batted balls are hit, to how good your defenders are, to random-value order of events, to the arbitrary amount of outs in an inning. Earned runs are an awful tool for pitcher evaluation.

From what I saw, almost all of Bard's runs came on ground balls hit to the right places. All I saw was him striking guys out and inducing ground balls and popups. He was not hit hard at any point - in fact he got 18 swings and misses. Last year, Josh Beckett led the team with 20 in any one game.

How do we analyze his start, then? With comprehensive metrics, of course. The most comprehensive stat going is SIERA, which values every event independently of both circumstance and fielding, and by it, Bard dominated. Same by other fielder-independents like FIP and xFIP. Judged on a scale similar to that of ERA, Bard posted a SIERA of 2.08, a FIP of 0.87, and an xFIP of 1.74.

Daniel Bard passed his first test with flying colors. Frankly, I thought he looked better than any other Red Sox pitcher so far, including Jon Lester. He's not just earned the right to stay in the rotation, he's put the American League on notice. He's not another reliever trying to convert, he's a legitimate threat. Pay attention to him.

The Papelbon Conundrum

I don't know anything about what it takes to be a major-league pitcher. I have spent my life learning to throw a curveball, studying aerodynamics and mechanics and trying to understand how or why a certain thing happens, while also studying to analyze and understand what each of these things mean, but as far as I know, I don't know one iota more than the average baseball fan about how throwing a baseball works. All of that having been said, however, there is one guy I have always felt that I understand, and that is Jonathan Papelbon.

Papelbon, a two-time Baseball America top-100 prospect, came into the league in 2005 as a starting pitcher with the Red Sox. A successful stint as a setup man late in that season, combined with an absolutely dominant performance as the closer in 2006 convinced the Red Sox to keep him in that role, and over the duration of his career has been the most dominant relief pitcher in the major leagues.

As a young Red Sox fan, Papelbon was the first guy who showed me what an 'explosive' fastball was, and the value of a live fastball that you can command. After his minor shoulder injury he taught me about pitching form and basic mechanics -- and his are very good. After a strength program, he's been perhaps the most healthy relief pitcher in baseball since 2006, with not so much as a day of soreness or dead arm on his record. What I'm trying to say here is that Papelbon may be the one pitcher that I've felt that I really understand.

Sometime in 2009 I watched a Mythbusters episode about baseball, and one of the things they addressed was whether or not a curveball curves, and they magnificently demonstrated that (and how) it does by visiting NASA's Ames laboratory in San Fransisco. In this video the aerodynamic principles around a curveball are displayed beautifully: the forward spin disrupts the air beneath it, creating a vacuum, while building up something of a head of air above it, which effectively pushes the ball downward. The opposite effect, which Roger Clemens explains here, can be applied to a four-seam fastball. The air above the ball is disrupted, while a pocket of higher pressure is created below the ball, which creates a ball that, in effect, falls slower than it should. In this video, the NASA guys explain that an elite MLB pitcher can create enough backspin to actually negate half the weight of the ball, essentially suspending it during its vertical journey.

What makes Papelbon so good is this backspin. Yes, he throws a decent splitter and something resembling a slider, and yes he features upper-mid-90s heat, and superior command of the fastball, but the 'upward', explosive movement of his four-seamer is what sets him apart. Since 2006, he has ranked among the top pitchers in baseball in this category. If you watch his awesome delivery, you can see how much he gets under and behind the ball to create this spin.

Three years into his major league career, as he was taking the mantle from Mo Rivera as the preeminent closer in baseball, something happened. He added a slider. He played with a cutter. He's never said as much, but I suspect that these things played with his delivery. His perfect delivery. In any case, something changed, and he stopped getting behind the ball like he did from 2005-2008. He got wider in his delivery, the ball came from the side more, adding lateral run, like a two-seamer, and his horizontal movement increased.

The effects were noticeable in 2009 and 2010. The ball moved more laterally, less vertically. Where it would once charge into the upper corners of the zone and hop over bats, it now leaked into the heart of the plate, or outside of the zone altogether. He missed fewer bats, he walked more guys. The effects on his production were obvious, as 2009 and 2010 were without doubt the worst years of his career.

These are just my observations, or at least they were. I never looked at the numbers or tried to confirm my theories. But watching the Phillies game Monday, in which Jonathan Papelbon threw a running, lateral fastball to Austin Kearns, who hit it out of the park, made me think back to these theories and I decided to apply the math to them. This is every season from 2007-2011, with Papelbon's SIERA and X Movement (horizontal movement):



SIERA is the most comprehensive pitching metric we have, but for the purposes of this conversation, all you need to know is that higher = worse, just like ERA. What this graph shows is a direct correlation between Papelbon's SIERA and the horizontal movement of his fastball. Way back in 2009, Dave Cameron at FanGraphs analyzed the correlation between fastball velocity and strikeout rate and found what he called a notable correlation with an r-squared coefficient of .229. In the above comparison, the chart features an r-squared of .385. I probably don't have to say that this is a direct and significant correlation.

The genesis of this post, and its conclusions, are the result of me watching a sloppy pitch from a very good reliever to a mediocre hitter sneak over the wall at a homer-friendly ballpark. I'm not saying Papelbon has lost his release point or his delivery, or whatever the problem was in 2009 and 2010, and I'm certainly not saying that I know why those things happened or how to correct them. But, this was an interesting tidbit in Papelbon's history, and something to watch for as he goes forward in a possible six-year deal with Philadelphia.

An Introduction

Considering that this post should garner approximately zero pageviews, this needn't be but short and sweet. I would simply like to outline my plans for this blog; a constitution, if you will.

- I would like to provide daily power rankings and recaps of the night's activities, so with a glance the reader can catch up on last night's happenings.

- I would like to provide a list of what to look for in the coming night's games. Pitching matchups, relevant games, debuts, reasons to watch. If you are a fan of the game and want to know which games deserve your attention, I hope to be able to inform you.

- As in any blog, there will be articles about whatever topic I can get my hands on. Check out the previous blog to which I contributed if you're interested in what kind of stuff I'll be writing about.

The power rankings probably won't begin in earnest until all teams are playing daily, so Sunday morning.

All of that having been said, thanks for having the misfortune of stumbling past here, and I hope you enjoy your stay!

Test Post: Prospect Avenue: Part Two

In part 1 we looked at such names as Danny Hultzen, Anthony Rizzo, and Yoenis Cespedes. Now, we'll continue with the top-ten prospects who should contribute in 2012.

10. OF Bryce Harper, Nationals

Age: 19
BA Rank: #1
Draft: 2010 - 1st round, 1st overall

I examined Harper's case as a major-leaguer earlier this year, and while I encourage you to follow the jump, we are all aware of the mammoth talent in Harper. He is the most skilled position player prospect since at least A-Rod, maybe Griffey, and perhaps of all time. He's hit basically everywhere he's been, and, oh yeah, he's 19.

Despite all his talent, I listed Harper at #10 for a couple of reasons. First, he didn't get a big-league spot out of Spring Training. He was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse last week. Additionally, many signs point to him not being ready to face MLB pitching. Most scouts agree that there are holes in his game, and you can tell that when he faced high-level pitching at Double-A in 2011, he was a little behind the rest of the league (.329 OBP). He didn't really hit in limited Spring Training at bats, either. Harper will be given time in center field at Syracuse, and the Nationals, smartly, are playing the long game with him. Despite his upside, I would not expect to see him before June, or maybe July (the new CBA and Super-Two rules may play a role here). As a result, his 2012 production probably won't be off the charts, but as the game's most exciting prospect, he is certainly a player to keep an eye on in this season.

9. SP Drew Pomeranz, Rockies

Age: 23
BA Rank: 30
Draft: 2010 - 1st round, 5th overall

The centerpiece of the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, Pomeranz, a lefty, is exactly what you like to see in a pitching prospect. He has a live, mid-90s fastball and a breaking pitch that has been described as the best in the 2010 draft class. He is supposed to have great control, though he did struggle a bit with his command (3.4 BB/9) in 2011. If he can get back to the command that he displayed at Ole Miss and polish off a third-pitch changeup, he could be a monster as soon as this year. Playing time shouldn't be an issue: he's currently penciled in as the Rockies' third starter, though they probably won't let him go more than 150 innings or so, as his previous high is just 101.

8. SP Jarrod Parker, Athletics

Age: 23
BA Rank: 26
Draft: 2007 - 1st round, 9th overall

Tommy John surgery kept Parker out for 2010, but he picked up where he left off in 2011, striking out 7.7 per 9 and walking 3.8. Supposedly, the life is back in his 95 mph fastball, and his pre-surgery command is supposedly back as well (though he has struggled this spring, walking 13 men in 11 innings). He features a sharp slider and curve, and has added a good changeup. With no real competition, he was expected to compete for a spot, but lack of sharpness had him optioned to minor league camp last week. He'll pitch with Triple-A Sacramento for now, but as soon as he shows he's still the guy worth trading for Trevor Cahill, expect him to start pitching for Oakland.

7. 1B Yonder Alonso, Padres

Age: 25
BA Rank: 33
Draft: 2008 - 1st round, 7th overall

Alonso has long been one of those 'good problems' for the Reds. With no fielding ability, he's practically chained to first base, but the Reds already had the best left-handed hitter on the planet manning first. They 'solved' that problem by sending him to San Diego in the Mat Latos trade, and after they dealt Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs, he'll begin the season as their starting first baseman.

Alonso has always hit. He has a career Minor league OPS of .837, and a Major league OPS of .833. He's supposed to have monster power potential, but he's never really grown into it, even at a relatively advanced age, and PETCO is probably not the best place to find your power stroke. Still, he takes plenty of walks (11% MiL walk rate), and hits enough line drives that he should show plenty of doubles power, if nothing else. And don't get me wrong: he still looks like a 20-homer player with some upside. He's already shown an ability to hit MLB pitching, and I see no reason to think he shouldn't create some real value for the Padres.

6. SP Brad Peacock, Athletics

Age: 24
BA Rank: 36
Draft: 2006 - 41st round

One of the pitchers acquired in the Gio Gonzalez trade, Peacock has gone largely unnoticed by many major publications (unranked by MLB.com's top-100, for instance). He features two plus pitches: a mid-90s fastball and a wicked knucke-curve. This allows him to strike out a ton of batters: over the last two years he's struck out 325 men in 289 innings from High-to-Triple-A. He features two other mediocre pitches, but his real third weapon is his ability to locate the first two: he's walked just 2.9 batters per 9 over the last two years. Peacock is an MLB pitcher at this point (he got a 12-inning cup of coffee last September), but Oakland may play with his service time as he was sent down with Parker last week. Just as with Parker, however, there is no real competition for him in the rotation, so as soon as the A's think he won't qualify for Super-Two status, he'll be with the big league club.

5. C Devin Mesoraco, Reds

Age: 24
BA Rank: 16
Draft: 2007 - 1st round, 15th overall

The Latos trade didn't completely ravage the Reds' system, as the top catching prospect in baseball is about to graduate to their big league club. Mesoraco is set to serve an apprenticeship under Ryan Hanigan in 2012, but if he hits and Hanigan doesn't, he could take his job at some point during the summer. Mesoraco is probably an average defensive catcher, throwing out 26% of baserunners while allowing 10 passed balls in 2011, but it's his bat that makes him such a great prospect. In 120 Triple-A games in 2011, he hit .289/.371/.484 with 15 home runs, after OPSing .964 in 2010. Supposedly, he can still get beat by inside stuff, but raw power and a penchant for walking make him a threat at the plate. He's athletic and hard-working, and baseball people expect him to make the strides to be a big-league catcher, as well. Which is more than we can say about:

4. C Jesus Montero, Mariners

Age: 22
BA Rank: 6

Perhaps the only available prospect the Mariners would have bitten on for Pineda, that swap took place in January. Montero is ridiculously talented with a bat. He makes consistent contact, hits for power, and walks at about an average or better pace. In his minor league career, he's hit .288/.348/.501, hit 15 home runs four times, and posted a .996 OPS in 69 plate appearances with the Yankees in 2011. Montero can hit.

The caveat is his defense. He's a catcher in name only. He's too big (the bad way) to field the position effectively, and while he has a strong arm, he supposedly has poor throwing mechanics and footwork, a virtual waste of the tool. Seattle is committed to trying him at catcher, though it looks like he'll get more DH time and just back up Miguel Olivo.

Montero is going to hit: of that I am sure. The question is, how well? Safeco will impact his offense, but how much? On the upside is Mike Piazza, with a downside like the latest version of Bengie Molina, and Montero likely to land somewhere in the middle.

3. SP Yu Darvish, Rangers

Age: 25
BA Rank: 4

I like Darvish. Like, a lot. His pitching repertoire and skillset really do deserve their own article, so if you're interested in his abilities, you really should check it out. The long and short of it is that he is probably the greatest non-pan-American pitcher to ever live, featuring a vast array of pitches that he commands and moves expertly and throws with serious velocity, touching 100 mph in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

In that article I address his conversion stats, and why I think he should work in the MLB where some other Japanese pitchers have failed. He's been impressive this Spring so far, with 10 strikeouts in 9 innings, with most people very impressed with his fastball. His breaking stuff seems to be a little tough to control so far, with 7 walks, but it remains to see which (if any) of the myriad issues that could be. Smart money is on the Rangers' #2 starter figuring it out and making 33 very good starts in 2012.

2. OF Mike Trout, Angels

Age: 20
BA Rank: 3
Draft: 2009 - 1st round, 25th overall

Mike Trout is Superman. While Harper may do everything well, and his hitting makes him the greatest talent in a generation, nobody has been as effectively well-rounded since Mays and Mantle. He hits (.338 lifetime average), he walks (11.5% career walk rate), and he hits for power (.508 career SLG). And he runs. Oh, does he run. He's gone 89/114 (78%) over the last two years in the minors, and nobody caught him in four attempts in the majors last year, not even Matt Wieters. He runs to first a half second faster than any major leaguer, and gets to third in the time it takes an international runner to run 100 meters. As a result, he could probably be one of the best center fielders in baseball right now.

But, we're looking at 2012, and the reality is that Mike Trout probably won't spend all of 2012 in the majors - despite the fact that he is unquestionably at least the second best outfielder in the Angels' organization. He hasn't played much this spring, going hitless in four at bats, due to a shoulder issue. He was cleared to throw Monday and will be DHing with minor league teams probably the rest of Spring Training, with an eye on playing full time in two weeks. After that, he'll probably be confined to Triple-A until the boos keep Jerry DiPoto up at night and he has to bench Vernon Wells or Torii Hunter. Or Bobby Abreu. Coincidently, this may be in mid-June when Trout loses his shot at Super-Two status. Just, you know, out of coincidence. Trout should play 3-4 months at an All-Star level, and that is why he should be the second-most valuable top prospect in 2012.

1. SP Matt Moore, Rays

Age: 23
BA Rank: 2
Draft: 2007 - 8th round

A small-framed lefty, Moore is fantastically talented. He features shockingly easy mid-90s heat, complements it with a wicked curve, and tops it off with a nifty fading change that, despite being his third pitch, is still one of the best changeups in the minors. With excellent command of this repertoire, he's done nothing but strike guys out over a lengthy minor league career (12.7 K/9!), while walking surprisingly few (3.8 BB/9) for someone as stuffsy as him. The Rays typically bring their prospects along slowly, but a 1.92 ERA kept Moore moving through the system in 2011, ending with a cup of coffee in Tampa, where he struck out 15 men in 9.1 innings, and started Game 1 of the ALDS, shutting out the eventual AL Champion Rangers for seven innings.

As far as natural ability go, he's one of the most gifted hurlers in the world. Only time will tell how far he goes, but the sky is the limit. The Rays will give him every opportunity: after signing a huge extension that could keep him in Tampa through 2019, there is no reason to play with his service time, and Moore will start 2012 in the rotation. With 170 combined innings in 2011, he will probably pitch a full season as well. While I wouldn't bet on it, he could go as far as winning the Cy Young Award as a rookie -- and that is why he is the #1 most valuable prospect in 2012.