Quick Thoughts: Sell Yourself

Let's see how many times I can call him Jason Bourne

I'm watching the Indians' Jackie Robinson Day game, and the Cleveland announcers bring up an interesting situation: On Sunday, Michael Bourn slid headfirst into first base in the bottom of the 8th against Matt Thornton and the Chicago White Sox, just beating the play. His reckless play brought the tying run to the plate with two outs in a 3-1 game, but he also tore his finger up and will likely miss the next 1-2 weeks of play.

This gave me an interesting thought - how much is the play worth? Not in terms of run value - that's easy enough to discern. Instead, how much is that play worth in terms of injury?

We can safely say that a game-winning catch in a WS game is probably worth the career of a replacement-level guy. Conversely, it is not worth Miguel Cabrera breaking a rib diving for a ground ball in the 9th inning of a 10-run game in June.

First, what is the value of that play? It was about 0.1 win. In the 8th inning, with nobody on and two out, the Indians had about a 25% chance of winning that game. With a man on first, that probability goes up to approximately 35% - maybe more with Bourn being the runner.

So, if we assume that the difference between being safe and being out was Bourn laying out, his injury earned the Indians 0.1 wins. How much did it cost?

Since 2009 Bourn has been a 5-win player, quite consistently. He was at 6.0 last year, but he's also turned 30, so I think that 5 is a fair assessment. The prognosis on his finger injury is 1-2 weeks, with Bourn supposedly guessing ten days. If we give a day or two leeway, that's ten games. He's averaged 153 games over the last four years, so ten games is 6.5% of his playing time.

6.5% of his annual value is 0.33 wins.

So, is laying out for that play worth it? Not even close.

What if it had been a bigger play, though? Let's be honest, a two-out infield single is not the place to make an impact. What if, as a result of his injury, Bourn contributed to the biggest play of the game - Paul Konerko's 6th-inning 2-run home run.

Well, even that huge play was worth 0.32 runs (the White Sox had a 27% chance of winning before, and a 58% chance afterward). That game-changing moment was still not worth just ten games of play.

Thirty years ago, Bill James theorized about a player playing at 100% actually being less valuable, due to the propensity for injury - he seems to be right. Going balls-to-the-wall to make those big Ben Revere plays is not worth a given injury - at least, not for great players.

Shout out to BP for the win matrix